ANALYSIS  ⁄  DEMOCRACY & GOVERNANCE

Greens take three seats from Labour so Progressive Group replaces Conservatives as official opposition

Conservative loss in Topsham among significant vote share changes in 2022 Exeter City Council elections suggesting city's political landscape in flux.

Exeter city council  Local elections 

Exeter Green Party has taken three seats from Labour in the 2022 city council elections, reducing the ruling party majority as its eleventh year in power begins.

The Conservative Party lost Topsham to Labour despite possessing a 23% vote share majority after increasing its share in the previous two elections. Newly-elected Labour councillor Joshua Ellis-Jones won by more than 250 votes, to the surprise of all involved.

The Labour gain offset the party’s losses to the Greens to leave it with a reduced majority of thirteen seats.

Liberal Democrat Kevin Mitchell held his Duryard & St James seat, increasing the party vote share by more than 10% to frustrate Labour hopes of repeating its 2021 victory in the ward.

The Green Party now holds the same number of seats on the council as the Conservatives.

The Progressive Group, formed by the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Independent Jemima Moore in 2019, has replaced the Conservatives as the official opposition on the city council.

Tess Read won in St David’s for the Green Party, increasing its majority in the ward, which has now elected three Green councillors in three years.

St David’s, which covers most of the city centre and is witness to extremes of wealth with poverty, has borne the brunt of a range of unpopular council policies.

These include allowing unbridled university expansion to affect housing availability and affordability and promoting city centre vehicle use despite air quality and public realm impacts.

The ward is also at the centre of the council’s controversial Liveable Exeter property development scheme.

Both Catherine Rees and Carol Bennett won for the Greens in Heavitree, which elected two councillors following the resignation of Labour’s Chris Buswell.

It was the city’s closest contest in 2021, when Catherine Rees lost by just sixteen votes.

This year both polled 200 votes more than the third-place Labour candidate.

Turnout in the ward was again highest in the city, at 47%, nearly 17% greater than in Labour stronghold Mincinglake & Whipton.

Labour’s Matt Vizard, who had appeared vulnerable in Newtown & St Leonard’s after the Green Party came close to ousting incumbent Richard Branston last year, slightly increased his party’s majority to hold on to the seat.

There were much larger vote share changes elsewhere in the city, with big swings both for and against Labour as well as the 10% Duryard & St James vote share change that meant Kevin Mitchell kept his seat.

Naima Allock consolidated her 2021 election victory in Mincinglake & Whipton by increasing her party’s vote share by more than 16% to the highest in the city at nearly 62%, 800 votes ahead of the Conservative in second place.

But deputy council leader Laura Wright came close to losing in St Thomas, where she was defending the largest Labour majority in the city, when Liberal Democrat Adrian Fullam increased his party’s vote share by nearly 15% to come within 44 votes of unseating her.

And while Labour increased its vote share in Exwick, also electing two councillors following a Labour resignation, ex-deputy council leader Rachel Sutton, who was first elected in 2010 and is executive member with responsibility for Exeter decarbonisation, will only serve a one year term after coming second in the ballot behind newcomer Paul Knott.

She will have to stand again next year if she wants to stay on the council.

It isn’t clear whether this result is a reflection of her constituent’s views of the council’s net zero policies or simply a consequence of her name appearing at the bottom of ballot papers which present candidates in alphabetical surname order.

In Priory Labour incumbent Tony Wardle, who has been on the council for fourteen years, also came second.

He was beaten by party colleague Marina Asvachin, who is also county councillor for Wonford & St Loye’s.

Her name appeared first and his last on the ballot papers. She has been elected for a four year term, he for two years.

There were also vote share swings against the Conservatives of more than 9% in Alphington, Heavitree and St Thomas, nearly 10% in Pennsylvania and nearly 13% in Exwick and Topsham.

Despite these, the party still received 23% of the ballots cast, just over half Labour’s nearly 46%. Labour nevertheless won twelve seats and the Conservatives just one.

The Greens received a slightly lower ballot share than the Conservatives yet won three seats, and the Liberal Democrat’s 13% ballot share was 10% less than the Conservative’s but the two parties both won a single seat.

Other vote share swings across the city significantly favoured the Greens, Labour and the Liberal Democrats in ways that are not reflected in the results, as well as in ways which are.

Notwithstanding the extent to which the First Past the Post electoral system encourages electoral strategies which amplify such effects, this year’s Exeter local election results suggest the city’s political landscape is in flux, with more change to come.

Methodology note

Exeter City Council elections in wards in which more than one seat is being elected are held using the multiple non-transferable vote system.

In such wards each voter is allowed to cast up to the number of votes which equals the number of seats being elected.

These votes are not ranked in any order of preference.

In such circumstances, because not all voters cast all of their votes, and because previous ward elections typically involve only a single seat, comparing vote shares over time is misleading.

In 2016 all the council’s seats were exceptionally elected at the same time, following boundary changes. Then in Priory in 2019 and in Mincinglake & Whipton last year voters were invited to cast up to two votes to elect two councillors at the same time.

This year four wards elected two councillors, with voters in Exwick, Heavitree, Pennsylvania and Priory each allowed to cast up to two votes.

Comparing party performance in Exeter City Council elections over time is further complicated because not all the main parties stand candidates in all wards at every election.

In particular, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats stood aside for each other in six wards last year, after the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats stood aside for independent candidate Jemima Moore in Newtown & St Leonard’s in 2019.

In wards electing more than one councillor we therefore calculate a proportional share of the ballots cast for the leading candidate in each party to compare party support between each year and the preceding year or years in which they stood at least one candidate in that ward.

We believe this is the best way to make statistically meaningful comparisons between the major parties in the city.

The chart above compares this ballot share approach with a similar approach which also factors in the size of the electorate each year, and the more typical all votes share approach which produces results whose accuracy fluctuates as a function of the number of wards in which more than one councillor being elected.

As three councillors were elected in each of thirteen wards in 2016, then one each in 2018, then more than one each in 2019, 2021 and 2022, the all votes share has been equal to the ballot share in only one of the past five elections.

Candidates from other parties, as well as independent candidates, have also stood in each of these elections.

UKIP contested most, but not all, of the city’s wards in 2016 and again in 2019, but not in 2018. The Women’s Equality Party also stood in Duryard & St James in 2018, 2019 and 2021. And an independent candidate stood in St Thomas this year and in the previous two years.

These candidates are grouped together to simplify comparison. Where more than one non-major party stands in a multiple non-transferable vote election the best performing candidate is included in the analysis.

Mid-year by-elections are excluded altogether.


 is editor of Exeter Observer and a director of its publisher Exeter Observer Limited.

Recent headlines
St Thomas library

St Thomas library forced to relocate when lease expires in November

Exeter City Council litter bin

Council to remove a quarter of city's 800 litter bins

The remains of the Royal Clarence Hotel in Cathedral Yard

Royal Clarence Hotel rebuild finally granted planning permission

Empty Co-Cars parking bay in College Road, Exeter

Co-Cars liquidation expected to leave creditor and shareholder losses of more than £1.3 million

Illustrative elevation facing St Luke's campus

Developer appeals Heavitree Road police station & magistrates court student/co-living blocks refusal

Royal Devon and Exeter hospital

Four day strike by consultants and junior doctors at Royal Devon NHS Trust

Recent headlines
St Thomas library

St Thomas library forced to relocate when lease expires in November

Exeter City Council litter bin

Council to remove a quarter of city's 800 litter bins

The remains of the Royal Clarence Hotel in Cathedral Yard

Royal Clarence Hotel rebuild finally granted planning permission

Empty Co-Cars parking bay in College Road, Exeter

Co-Cars liquidation expected to leave creditor and shareholder losses of more than £1.3 million

Illustrative elevation facing St Luke's campus

Developer appeals Heavitree Road police station & magistrates court student/co-living blocks refusal

Royal Devon and Exeter hospital

Four day strike by consultants and junior doctors at Royal Devon NHS Trust

Recent stories
The remains of the Royal Clarence Hotel in Cathedral Yard

NEWS  ⁄  PLANNING & PLACE

Royal Clarence Hotel rebuild finally granted planning permission

Agreed developer contributions do not include planned education provision and may be significantly reduced after construction is complete.

Empty Co-Cars parking bay in College Road, Exeter

ANALYSIS  ⁄  TRANSPORT & MOBILITY

Co-Cars liquidation expected to leave creditor and shareholder losses of more than £1.3 million

Sale of Co-Bikes fleet and spare parts agreed for just 4.5% of £600,000 book value after significant grant funding and investment fail to float shared mobility provider.

Royal Devon and Exeter hospital

NEWS  ⁄  COMMUNITY & SOCIETY

Four day strike by consultants and junior doctors at Royal Devon NHS Trust

Industrial action affecting almost all planned care marks first time consultants and junior doctors have taken strike action together.

Wellbeing Exeter community building graphic

NEWS  ⁄  COMMUNITY & SOCIETY

Devon County Council cuts £270,000 Wellbeing Exeter partnership funding

Decision made in parallel with homelessness prevention funding cut decisions following January announcement of £50 million of unspecified 2023-24 budget cuts.

View of the original proposals from New Bridge Street

NEWS  ⁄  PLANNING & PLACE

Exeland House 'co-living' proposals revised to address 'extreme increase in flood risks'

Environment Agency says most new residential development in River Exe floodplain 'will be required to be at first floor or higher' to deal with 'future flood risks exacerbated by climate change'.

The Gorge marketing graphic

NEWS  ⁄  PLANNING & PLACE

First Exeter 'co-living' rooms advertised to let from £1,045-£1,360 per month plus council tax

£40,800 minimum salary to rent 26.5 square metre room in six storey 133-unit block, promoted as two minutes' walk from university St Luke's campus, requiring tenants among top 20% of Exeter earners – or with wealthy guarantors.

On our radar
All topics

ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY   AIR QUALITY AIR QUALITY AIR QUALITY   COP26 COP26 COP26   COVID-19 COVID-19 COVID-19   CITYPOINT CITYPOINT CITYPOINT   CLIFTON HILL SPORTS CENTRE CLIFTON HILL SPORTS CENTRE CLIFTON HILL SPORTS CENTRE   CLIMATE CRISIS CLIMATE CRISIS CLIMATE CRISIS   CO-LIVING CO-LIVING CO-LIVING   COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE LEVY COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE LEVY COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE LEVY   CONGESTION CONGESTION CONGESTION   COUNCIL TAX COUNCIL TAX COUNCIL TAX   CROWN ESTATE CROWN ESTATE CROWN ESTATE   CYCLING & WALKING CYCLING & WALKING CYCLING & WALKING   DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT   DEVON & CORNWALL POLICE DEVON & CORNWALL POLICE DEVON & CORNWALL POLICE   DEVON CARBON PLAN DEVON CARBON PLAN DEVON CARBON PLAN   DEVON COUNTY COUNCIL DEVON COUNTY COUNCIL DEVON COUNTY COUNCIL   DEVON PENSION FUND DEVON PENSION FUND DEVON PENSION FUND   EAST DEVON DISTRICT COUNCIL EAST DEVON DISTRICT COUNCIL EAST DEVON DISTRICT COUNCIL   EXETER AIRPORT EXETER AIRPORT EXETER AIRPORT   EXETER CATHEDRAL EXETER CATHEDRAL EXETER CATHEDRAL   EXETER CHIEFS EXETER CHIEFS EXETER CHIEFS   EXETER CITY COUNCIL EXETER CITY COUNCIL EXETER CITY COUNCIL   EXETER CITY FUTURES EXETER CITY FUTURES EXETER CITY FUTURES   EXETER CITY LIVING EXETER CITY LIVING EXETER CITY LIVING   EXETER CLIMATE ACTION HUB EXETER CLIMATE ACTION HUB EXETER CLIMATE ACTION HUB   EXETER COLLEGE EXETER COLLEGE EXETER COLLEGE   EXETER CULTURE EXETER CULTURE EXETER CULTURE   EXETER DEVELOPMENT FUND EXETER DEVELOPMENT FUND EXETER DEVELOPMENT FUND   EXETER LIVE BETTER EXETER LIVE BETTER EXETER LIVE BETTER   EXETER LOCAL PLAN EXETER LOCAL PLAN EXETER LOCAL PLAN   EXETER PHOENIX EXETER PHOENIX EXETER PHOENIX   EXETER PRIDE EXETER PRIDE EXETER PRIDE   EXETER SCIENCE PARK EXETER SCIENCE PARK EXETER SCIENCE PARK   EXETER ST DAVID'S EXETER ST DAVID'S EXETER ST DAVID'S   EXETER TRANSPORT STRATEGY EXETER TRANSPORT STRATEGY EXETER TRANSPORT STRATEGY   EXETER CITY CENTRE EXETER CITY CENTRE EXETER CITY CENTRE   EXTINCTION REBELLION EXETER EXTINCTION REBELLION EXETER EXTINCTION REBELLION EXETER   FREEDOM OF INFORMATION FREEDOM OF INFORMATION FREEDOM OF INFORMATION   FRIDAYS FOR FUTURE EXETER FRIDAYS FOR FUTURE EXETER FRIDAYS FOR FUTURE EXETER   GENERAL ELECTIONS GENERAL ELECTIONS GENERAL ELECTIONS   GUILDHALL GUILDHALL GUILDHALL   HARLEQUINS HARLEQUINS HARLEQUINS   HEART OF THE SOUTH WEST LEP HEART OF THE SOUTH WEST LEP HEART OF THE SOUTH WEST LEP   HOUSING CRISIS HOUSING CRISIS HOUSING CRISIS   LGBTQIA+ LGBTQIA+ LGBTQIA+   LIBRARIES UNLIMITED LIBRARIES UNLIMITED LIBRARIES UNLIMITED   LIVEABLE EXETER PLACE BOARD LIVEABLE EXETER PLACE BOARD LIVEABLE EXETER PLACE BOARD   LIVEABLE EXETER LIVEABLE EXETER LIVEABLE EXETER   LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY   LOCAL ELECTIONS LOCAL ELECTIONS LOCAL ELECTIONS   MAKETANK MAKETANK MAKETANK   MARSH BARTON MARSH BARTON MARSH BARTON   MET OFFICE MET OFFICE MET OFFICE   MID DEVON DISTRICT COUNCIL MID DEVON DISTRICT COUNCIL MID DEVON DISTRICT COUNCIL   NET ZERO EXETER NET ZERO EXETER NET ZERO EXETER   NORTHERNHAY GARDENS NORTHERNHAY GARDENS NORTHERNHAY GARDENS   OXYGEN HOUSE OXYGEN HOUSE OXYGEN HOUSE   PARIS STREET PARIS STREET PARIS STREET   PARKING PARKING PARKING   PENINSULA TRANSPORT PENINSULA TRANSPORT PENINSULA TRANSPORT   PLANNING POLICY PLANNING POLICY PLANNING POLICY   PRINCESSHAY PRINCESSHAY PRINCESSHAY   PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT   PUBLIC CONSULTATION PUBLIC CONSULTATION PUBLIC CONSULTATION   PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH PUBLIC HEALTH   PUBLIC PARKS PUBLIC PARKS PUBLIC PARKS   PUBLIC REALM PUBLIC REALM PUBLIC REALM   PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT   RAMM RAMM RAMM   REFUSE & RECYCLING REFUSE & RECYCLING REFUSE & RECYCLING   RETROFIT RETROFIT RETROFIT   ROYAL DEVON NHS TRUST ROYAL DEVON NHS TRUST ROYAL DEVON NHS TRUST   SIDWELL STREET SIDWELL STREET SIDWELL STREET   SOUTH WEST EXETER EXTENSION SOUTH WEST EXETER EXTENSION SOUTH WEST EXETER EXTENSION   SOUTH WEST WATER SOUTH WEST WATER SOUTH WEST WATER   SOUTHERNHAY SOUTHERNHAY SOUTHERNHAY   SPORT ENGLAND LOCAL DELIVERY PILOT SPORT ENGLAND LOCAL DELIVERY PILOT SPORT ENGLAND LOCAL DELIVERY PILOT   ST JAMES NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN ST JAMES NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN ST JAMES NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN   ST SIDWELL'S COMMUNITY CENTRE ST SIDWELL'S COMMUNITY CENTRE ST SIDWELL'S COMMUNITY CENTRE   ST SIDWELL'S POINT ST SIDWELL'S POINT ST SIDWELL'S POINT   STAGECOACH SOUTH WEST STAGECOACH SOUTH WEST STAGECOACH SOUTH WEST   STUDENT ACCOMMODATION STUDENT ACCOMMODATION STUDENT ACCOMMODATION   TEIGNBRIDGE DISTRICT COUNCIL TEIGNBRIDGE DISTRICT COUNCIL TEIGNBRIDGE DISTRICT COUNCIL   UNIVERSITY OF EXETER UNIVERSITY OF EXETER UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   WATER LANE WATER LANE WATER LANE  

More stories