You don’t have to wait long at a High Street bus stop before someone will pass comment on the state of Exeter’s bus services, with Stagecoach South West, the area’s principal bus operator, cast as chief villain.
The reality is more complex. The key factors influencing the quality of service we experience on our streets are well beyond the reach of Stagecoach, or any other bus operator. Local authorities, central government, the state of the economy, the structure of the bus industry, and passengers – actual and potential – all contribute to the operating environment.
Peter Knight took over as managing director of Stagecoach South West in December last year. We recently spoke with him about his plans to steer Exeter’s bus services around these obstacles.
Exeter bus stuck in rush hour traffic
Mr Knight is clear about the way forward. He wants his customers to experience a bus service which turns up when the timetable says it will, offers a range of good value-for-money fares and gets people from A to B safely and reliably. He sees three principal challenges in achieving these objectives: road traffic congestion, operational costs and post-COVID passenger levels.
Congestion is a frequent problem on Exeter’s road network, and buses contribute to congestion as well as fall victim to it. Mr Knight says that one justification for bus timetable changes that were introduced in April was to give individual buses more time to complete their journeys, rather than become increasingly delayed by congestion, even to the point that timetabled trips are curtailed.
He cites Stagecoach figures comparing a 1% punctuality improvement in the city over the past twelve months with a 10% improvement since the April timetable changes (though buses that are up to five minutes late still count as “on time”).
However there is only so much a bus operator can do to address congestion, as he points out. Other solutions require changes on the highway network itself, such as priority for buses at junctions or new bus lanes. These are the responsibility of the local highway authority, Devon County Council.
“Keeping the traffic flowing” used to be the mantra of highway authorities, and still is one of National Highways’ objectives. However local authority priorities are now more about keeping traffic in its place by managing the roads network or creating new infrastructure so people, rather than cars, are the priority.
Exeter bus stuck in traffic
A focus on improving bus services was one of the more useful initiatives of Boris Johnson’s government, in the form of the Bus Back Better strategy. Mr Knight is enthusiastic about the DevonBus Enhanced Partnership arrangements it introduced alongside Devon’s Bus Services Improvement Plan.
Although it is still early days for these arrangements, he sees the key players coming together as the Enhanced Partnership Board to talk to each other round a single table and share data as an important initiative. It has already led to the identification of some low-cost interventions in traffic management that should help buses keep moving, though he notes that “these things do take time”.
Devon County Council’s 2020-2030 Exeter Transport Strategy is accompanied by a 5-year implementation plan which lists the identification and reduction of bus delays at congestion hotspots as a key action. Mr Knight told us that the Enhanced Partnership Board has so far done some work on identifying these hotspots. Beyond that, we await implementation.
At the same time some schemes, principally bus lane improvements, were approved for funding from the £8.8 million allocated by the government for the capital spending element of Devon’s Bus Services Improvement Plan, though this sum covers the whole county, not just Exeter. According to Devon County Council, bus priority improvement schemes for New North Road and Cowick Street have been finalised and are ready for public consultation.
There is no sign of more radical measures to deflect traffic from Exeter. Congestion is not just a city centre phenomenon but affects all the main routes in and out of the centre to varying degrees. And opening the occasional new rail station such as Marsh Barton is not going to create the step change in travel habits needed to address it.
Parking (legally) in a bus lane slows down bus journeys
The second challenge for Stagecoach in achieving bus service improvements is operational costs, which Mr Knight says have increased by 30% since the pandemic. He stresses that the company tries to absorb as much of these increases as it can, though as bus users can testify this still doesn’t prevent fare rises.
Operational costs include vehicle parts, tyres, fuel and oil. They also include staff salaries, which have been increased to ensure the company can attract employees in a competitive marketplace. It has achieved a net increase of eighteen drivers over the past year and the driver shortage – a key factor in Stagecoach being summoned before the Traffic Commissioner in November last year – has now eased.
The company’s “operated miles” figure (the miles run as a proportion of those scheduled) was 99.2% for Exeter in early May, up from a nadir of 93%. (Devon County Council says it was 99.5% in early June.) Mr Knight attributes the miles that are still being lost to breakdowns and congestion-related cancellations rather than a shortage of drivers.
The company’s third challenge is changes in the ways people use buses in the post-pandemic world. Passenger numbers fell nationally to 10% of pre-pandemic levels in April 2020 before returning slowly to around 90% of their former levels by May 2023.
Mr Knight’s analysis is that people travel into cities less frequently to work as the attractions of flexible working have become apparent and make fewer shopping trips because of online retailing. Trips by concessionary card holders are at around three-quarters of pre-pandemic levels, which is significant for bus operators in Devon with its relatively elderly population.
Bus maintenance costs have risen significantly
Some argue that service frequencies should be increased to make buses a more attractive mobility choice. Mr Knight is cautious. As he puts it, as soon as the door shuts and there is nobody on the bus the operator has no income to set against its running costs, some £50 per hour.
He didn’t list improving passenger information systems – which continue to be unsatisfactory – in his three key challenges. He told us he believes the situation has already improved, though he acknowledges the company could be better at communicating unforeseen issues in real time.
The app remains unreliable and advance notice of route changes is often not provided. Despite re-routing the Green Park & Ride service from early this month to serve the new Marsh Barton rail station there appears to be no mention of this on the company’s website. Stagecoach could and should fix such issues.
If we want modal shift away from private car use – as endorsed by all the relevant city and county council policies – buses are the only realistic alternative for journeys that cannot be made by rail or are too long or difficult to walk or cycle. Yet the business model we have for bus services requires operators to make a profit, except on a small number of subsidised routes.
Short notice cancellations remain an issue
We asked others what they thought of Stagecoach’s performance in Exeter. Devon County Council said it was “on the whole very good”, while pointing out that some services could benefit from frequency increases.
The Exeter & District Bus User Group shares the county council’s view that reliability is much improved, but would like to see better timetable planning on routes where services are bunched together, leaving long gaps between buses. The group meets regularly with senior Stagecoach managers and the county council’s bus services officer. It was told that the government’s £2 maximum fare initiative had helped to increase passenger numbers by around 5%-6%.
City council leader Phil Bialyk told a June council scrutiny meeting that some Exeter bus routes had “the worst provision of service on timetabling” he had encountered. He announced that Mr Knight had agreed to hold a briefing for all city councillors on the issues facing the company.
As for the travelling public, the evidence is anecdotal. Waiting at a stop or sitting on a bus provides ample opportunity to hear unsolicited complaints. There is also an Exeter Area Bus Action Group on Facebook that reflects a range of views, some of which seem representative of common problems.
One member recently asked: “Anyone know if the R/S is running today? 9.21am bus from South Lawn Terrace to town never arrived and the lady waiting before me said the earlier bus didn’t arrive either.” They added: “I’ve now had to spend money on a taxi to get into town on time for my appointment. No sign on bus stop or app of any cancellations or disruptions”.
Later the same day they followed up: “Spoke to Stagecoach about the lack of information, apparently they are not liable for informing their customers about changes to routes in terms of diversions or road works (absolutely ridiculous!).
“When I asked about a refund for the extra money I had to spend on a taxi they offered a free day rider ticket or said speak to the local council or MP – what a joke”.
Exeter bus stuck in traffic
In the end, running reliable and affordable bus services comes down to political will and money. Central government has been reducing local authority spending power for more than a decade, severely constraining the ability of transport authorities to subsidise unprofitable services and highway authorities to do more than maintenance.
And the £5.2 million in government funding for the revenue spending element of the Devon Bus Services Improvement Plan – substantially less than the £102 million asked for – cannot be used to maintain existing facilities or support existing bus services.
In most parts of England bus services are provided by private companies that seek to make a profit and are reluctant to carry risk. Accounts published by Stagecoach Devon Limited (the legal name for Stagecoach South West) show that the company increased its revenue by 26% between 2020-21 and 2021-22, from £37.8 million to £47.8 million.
At the same time it turned an operating profit of £1.9 million for 2020-21 into a loss of £0.9 million in 2021-22, down 150%. This significantly underperforms Stagecoach’s UK regional bus sector as a whole, where revenues were up 35% and profits 136% over the same period.
Unless the local transport authority can subsidise unprofitable services then the market will determine where buses run, not social or environmental need. Government policy continues to support this approach. Since implementation of the Transport Act 1985, public regulation of bus service provision outside of London has been minimal.
In Exeter, council leader Phil Bialyk does not consider renationalisation of buses a realistic or even desirable prospect. He told the June meeting that the costs of the council purchasing and operating buses would be excessive, and said he would instead prefer an approach which gives councils and the public a major say over what services are provided. Transport for Cornwall could be a suitable model.
Meanwhile Peter Knight says that Stagecoach is “working around the clock to ensure that everything is as it should be”. There’s no reason to doubt this, but the obstacles the company has to find its way around are formidable.
